Yield
Curve
Watch.
The single most reliable recession predictor in modern finance. When short-term rates exceed long-term rates the curve inverts — and every recession since 1955 was preceded by exactly that signal. Watch it live.
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2Y–10Y Spread (bps)
Live Yield Curve Shape — Treasury Securities
Spread Signals
Negative spread = inverted curve = recession warning. The 2Y-10Y spread is the most watched signal in fixed income markets.
Treasury Yields
Individual yield levels with historical change across timeframes. Rising yields mean falling bond prices.
⚡ What To Watch
2Y Yield crosses 6%
While GDP is contracting — stagflation confirmed. Every financial model built on a soft landing gets rewritten simultaneously.
2Y–10Y Spread below -100bps
Deep inversion signals severe banking stress. Banks borrow short and lend long — deep inversion destroys bank profitability systemically.
3M–10Y inversion persists
The Fed's preferred recession indicator. 12+ months of inversion has preceded every modern recession. Duration matters as much as depth.
30Y rises while 2Y spikes
Signals foreign treasury demand is weakening. If long end rises with short end simultaneously the doom loop is accelerating — not just a Fed policy story.
Fed Funds below 2Y yield
Market pricing rate cuts that haven't happened yet. When this gap widens the market is betting the Fed blinks on inflation before it beats it.
Curve steepens rapidly
After a deep inversion a sudden steepening historically signals recession has already begun — not that it's been avoided. Bear steepening is the danger signal.
Data: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED) · Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System · Updated daily on business days